Eergisteren
op CounterPunch een artikel van Robert Hunziker, waarin hij
beschrijft dat een enrome hoeveelheid methaangas kan vrijkomen uit
onderzeese permafrost. De hoeveelheid die daar vrij kan komen is zo groot
dat het binnen een paar decennia (wetenschappers stellen zelfs binnen
10 jaar) de wereldtemperatuur met 8 graden Celsius zal doen
stijgen……. Niet nodig te zeggen dat men tot nu toe in de wetenschap en op klimaattoppen geen rekening met deze onderzeese permafrost heeft gehouden…..
Men
spreekt in de wat betreft de klimaatverandering totaal disfunctionerende politiek over het voorkomen van een temperatuurstijging van 1,5 graad
aan het eind van deze eeuw en wat dit alsnog voor gevolgen kan hebben
(een halve graad opwarming zou al tot 150 miljoen doden leiden…*)…..
Het is overigens al lang zo dat een
fiks aantal wetenschappers waarschuwen dat de temperatuur veel hoger
zal uitvallen dan de 1,5 graad waar men o.a. in Parijs over sprak en
die gehaald moet worden met maatregelen die men over een veel te lange
periode wil uitvoeren….. Deze wetenschappers stellen dat zelfs al
zouden we vandaag alle ‘mooie plannen’** kunnen uitvoeren, de
temperatuurstijging aan het eind van de eeuw zelfs met 4 graden C. of meer zal toenemen….. (met alle gevolgen van dien)
Het zal geen verrassing zijn dat met de opwarming van de aarde, grote laag gelegen gebieden zullen onderlopen door de stijging van de zeespiegel…..
Nu
blijkt dus dat de temperatuurstijging aan het eind van deze eeuw hoogstwaarschijnlijk zelfs meer dan 8 graden C. zal bedragen, sterker nog: dit zou binnen een paar decennia al kunnen gebeuren….. Als dit werkelijk zou gebeuren, zullen grote delen van ons lands onder water lopen en zal ook een groot deel van de Nederlanders klimaatvluchteling worden……
JUNE
20, 2019
The
Dangerous Methane Mystery
Photograph
Source: Mikenorton – CC
BY-SA 3.0
The
East Siberian Arctic Shelf (“ESAS”) is the epicenter of a
methane-rich zone that could turn the world upside down.
Still,
the ESAS is not on the radar of mainstream science, and not included
in calculations by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change), and generally not well understood. It is one of the biggest
mysteries of the world’s climate puzzle, and it is highly
controversial, which creates an enhanced level of uncertainty and
casts shadows of doubt.
The
ESAS is the most extensive continental shelf in the world, inclusive
of the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Russian portion of
the Chukchi Sea, all-in equivalent to the combined landmasses of
Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Japan.
The
region hosts massive quantities of methane (“CH4”) in frozen
subsea permafrost in extremely shallow waters, enough CH4 to
transform the “global warming” cycle into a “life-ending”
cycle. As absurd as it sounds, it is not inconceivable.
Ongoing
research to unravel the ESAS mystery is found in very few studies,
almost none, except by Natalia Shakhova (International Arctic
Research Center (IARC***), University of Alaska/Fairbanks) a leading authority,
for example: “It has been suggested that destabilization of shelf
Arctic hydrates could lead to large-scale enhancement of aqueous CH4,
but this process was hypothesized to be negligible on a
decadal–century time scale. Consequently, the continental shelf of
the Arctic Ocean (AO) has not been considered as a possible source of
CH4 to the atmosphere until very recently.” (Source: Natalia
Shakhova, et al, Understanding
the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in
the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,
Geosciences, 2019)
Shakhova’s
“until very recently” comment explains, in part, why the IPCC
does not include ESAS methane destabilization in its calculations.
Meanwhile, Shakhova’s research has unearthed a monster in hiding,
but thankfully, mostly in repose… for the moment. Still,
early-stage warning signals are clearly noticeable; ESAS is rumbling,
increasingly emitting more and more CH4, possibly in anticipation of
a “Big Burp,” which could put the world’s lights out, hopefully
in another century, or beyond, but based upon a reading of her latest
report in Geosciences, don’t count on it taking so long.
Shakhova’s
research is highlighted in a recent article in Arctic News: “When
Will We Die?” d/d June 10, 2019, which states: “Imagine a burst
of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that would
add an amount of methane to the atmosphere equal to twice the methane
that is already there.”
Horror
of horrors, the resulting equation is disturbing, to say the least,
to wit: Twice the amount of CH4 that is already in the atmosphere
equals a CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) of 560 ppm, assuming CH4 is
150xs the potency of CO2 in its initial years. And, adding that new
number to current CH4/CO2e of 280 ppm to current CO2 levels of 415.7
ppm, according to readings at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, equals total
atmospheric CO2 of 1256 ppm.
In
other words, if ESAS springs a big fat leak, the Big Burp, which
would only be <5% of the existing frozen methane deposit; it is
possible that atmospheric CO2e would zoom up go as high as 1256 ppm.
What
happens next?
A
recent third-party study, also referenced in the aforementioned
Arctic News article d/d June 10th, concluded that at 1200 ppm
atmospheric CO2 global heating cranks up by 8°C, or 14.4°F, within
a decade. (Source: Arctic News d/d June 10, 2019). Truth be known,
that scenario is not problematic, it’s catastrophic and too far
along to be classified as a problem. After all, problems can be
fixed; catastrophes are fatal.
According
to Shakhova’s research, as referenced in Geosciences/ 2019:
“Releases could potentially increase by 3–5 orders of magnitude,
considering the sheer amount of CH4 preserved within the shallow
ESAS seabed deposits and the documented thawing rates of subsea
permafrost reported recently. The purpose of this paper is to
introduce the ESAS permafrost–hydrates system, which is largely
unfamiliar to scientists,” Ibid. (Side note: 3 orders of magnitude
is equivalent to 1,000, i.e., a large methane release.)
More
from Shakhova: “Here we present results of the first comprehensive
scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the
near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded
permafrost table of ~14 cm (6 inches) year over the past 31–32
years… However, recent studies show that in some areas very
recently submerged permafrost is close to or has already reached the
thaw point,” Ibid.
Shakhova’s
studies are based upon marine expeditions, including drill campaigns
that investigate the thermal regime, geomorphology, lithology, and
geocryology of sediment cores extracted from boreholes drilled from
marine vessels and not based solely upon climate models calculated on
desktop computers.
In
conclusion, as the world community continues to accept the reality of
climate change as an existential threat, which fact is emphatically
spotlighted by the likes of the Children’s Crusade, originating out
of Sweden, and the Extinction Rebellion, originating out of the UK,
it is important to emphasize the timing factor. Nobody knows 100% for
certain how the climate crisis will turn out, but there is pretty
solid evidence that the issue, meaning several ecosystems which are
starting to collapse in unison, is accelerating, by a lot. So, there
is not much time left to do something constructive, assuming it’s
not already too late. Speaking of which, a small faction of climate
scientists has already “tossed in the towel.”
After
all, it’s not that hard to understand their point of view as many
ecosystems have already hit tipping points, which means no turning
back, no fixes possible, but still, (and, here’s the great hope)
nobody really knows 100% for sure how all of this will play out.
Nevertheless,
in a perfect world that really/truly “follows the science” a
Worldwide All-In Coordinated Marshall Plan to do “whatever it
takes” would already be in a full-blastoff mode.
But…
It’s not!
More
articles by:ROBERT
HUNZIKER
Robert
Hunziker lives
in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.
============================
* Zie: ‘Halve graad opwarming van de aarde zal 150 miljoen mensen het leven kosten……‘
** De klimaattop in Parijs was in feite een sof, waar men zelfs rekening hield met de oliemaatschappijen… Zo werd er niet eens gesproken over het belasten van de grote CO2 uitstoters, waartoe uiteraard de oliemaatschappijen behoren……
*** IARC (arct.).
Zie ook:
‘ING blij met nieuwe oliewinning voor de kust van Guyana, ‘uiterst duurzaam…’‘
‘Boris Johnson (Britse premier) liegt keihard dat de branden in Amazonegebied hem aan het hart gaan‘
‘Bolsonaro 8 maanden president: nu al 84% meer bosbranden in het Amazonewoud……‘
‘Het beschermen van de planeet is verworden tot een misdaad, veelal bestraft met moord‘
‘Aantal CO2 deeltjes in de atmosfeer op voor de mens nooit eerder vertoond hoog niveau‘
‘Het beschermen van de planeet is verworden tot een misdaad, veelal bestraft met moord‘ (zie ook de links in dat bericht)
‘Cruiseschip Zuiderdam urenlang tegengehouden van afvaren door milieuactivisten‘
‘Klimaatakkoord doorrekening uh verrekening laat zien dat de doelen niet gehaald zullen worden >> het grote belazeren‘ (ook met uitleg over cumulatieve effecten op de klimaatverandering)
‘Australië geeft toestemming tot uitbaten enorm grote kolenmijn‘ (zie ook de links in dat bericht over het Grote Barrièrerif)
‘Hartklachten ook door lage niveau’s van luchtvervuiling…..’
‘‘Brekend nieuws’: Rutte (VVD premier) stelt bedrijfsleven gerust wat betreft de energietransitie‘
Hier nog wat links naar berichten over het belachelijke Nederlandse klimaatakkoord:
‘Klimaatakkoord en Rutte’s belofte over de CO2 heffing >> Kees Boonman geeft toe veel te verzinnen‘