Keer op keer hoor je de robotiseringsgoeroe’s vertellen, dat met de intrede van robots in het productieproces (of dienstverlening) geen werkgelegenheid verdwijnt. Gelul van een dronken aardbei is de beste kwalificatie voor die woorden.
We hebben de voorbeelden NB voor het oprapen, ook al zullen de bovengenoemde goeroe’s stellen dat dit niets met robotisering te maken heeft. Het gaat om de automatisering, wat is er tegen om een een graan combine een robot te noemen?
Een graan combine vervangt minstens tien landarbeiders, mensen die toch echt elders werk moesten gaan zoeken…… Hetzelfde geldt voor de geldautomaten. Bij de de invoering daarvan vroegen de loketmedewerkers van de giro en banken je, of je geen pas wilde hebben voor zo’n automaat, daar dat ‘lekker snel zou gaan’.
Menig witte boorden arbeider heb ik destijds voorgelegd, dat ze bezig waren hun eigen baan te grabbel te gooien aan een machine. Een meewarige blik was meestal ‘het antwoord…’ Intussen hebben vele duizenden van deze medewerkers een andere baan moeten zoeken. Zo bezien: wat is er tegen een geldautomaat een robot te noemen? Immers deze doet het werk sneller en zolang er geld in het apparaat zit, werkt deze 24 uur per dag door…….
Een paar dagen gelden ontving ik een artikel van Anti-Media, dat werd overgenomen van Zero Hedge. De schrijver, Tyler Durden, vertelt hierin over het voornemen van McDonalds om dit jaar 2.500 baliefuncties te vervangen door automaten, zodat je bij een automaat je bestelling en betaling moet doen…… Let wel, dat is nog maar het begin, uiteindelijk zullen wereldwijd een paar honderdduizend medewerkers hun baan verliezen…..
Nogmaals: er zullen met verdere automatisering/robotisering steeds meer banen verdwijnen, zodat er straks een enorm leger aan mensen zal ontstaan voor wie er geen werk zal zijn….. Het is onbegrijpelijk dat de politiek en de reguliere media als een konijn in de koplamp zitten te kijken, zich in slaap laten lullen door ‘deskundigen’* en denken dat het allemaal wel goed zal komen……
Eén ding is zeker, de bedrijven die hun processen automatiseren, zullen er niet over denken om meer belasting te betalen, zodat iedereen van een fatsoenlijk inkomen kan worden voorzien. De praktijk laat zien, dat bedrijven alleen geïnteresseerd zijn in het verlagen van de kosten………
Mcdonald’s
Is Replacing 2,500 Human Cashiers With Digital Kiosks This Year
June
23, 2017 at 9:48 am
Written
by Tyler
Durden
(ZH) — The
stock market is luvin’ McDonalds
stock, which has continued its recent relentless rise to all time
highs, up 26% YTD, oblivious to the carnage
among the broader restaurant and fast-food sector.
There is a reason for Wall Street’s euphoria: the same one we
discussed in January in “Dear
Bernie, Meet the “Big Mac ATM” That Will Replace All Of Your $15
Per Hour Fast Food Workers.”
In
a report released this week by Cowen’s Andrew Charles, the analyst
calculates the jump in sales as a result of the company’s
new Experience
of the Future strategy
which anticipates that digital ordering kiosks (shown above) will
replace cashiers in at least 2,500 restaurants by the end of 2017 and
another 3,000 over 2018. Cowen also cited plans for the restaurant
chain to roll out mobile ordering across 14,000 U.S. locations by the
end of 2017 (we did not show that particular math, but the logic was
similarly compelling).
Here
is a snapshot of the math that Cowen, likely in conjunction with
management, used to come up with the cost-savings as McDonalds
increasingly lays off more and more minimum wage workers and replaces
them with “Big Mac ATMs”
MCD
is cultivating a digital platform through mobile ordering and
Experience of the Future (EOTF), an in-store technological overhaul
most conspicuous through kiosk ordering and table delivery. Our
analysis suggests efforts should bear fruit in 2018 with a combined
130 bps contribution to U.S. comps. We
believe mobile ordering better supplements the drive-thru business
where 70%+ of U.S. sales are transacted. In our view, MCD’s
differentiation lies in the operational enhancements of mobile
ordering that includes curbside pick-up of orders in order to not
disrupt the drive-thru.
Below
we show Cowen’s full math laying out why the restaurant chain’s
client-facing fast food workers are now obsolete:
We
are most excited for mobile ordering, Experience of the Future and
the launch of fresh beef to help drive U.S. same store sales in 2018.
We provide analysis for the latter three, which
cumulatively we expect to contribute roughly 150 bps to U.S. same
store sales in 2018, respectively. This
gives us confidence to raise our 2018 U.S. same store sales forecast
from 2% to 3%, in excess of Consensus Metrix’s 2.5%.
Experience
of the Future Features Lower ROI Than Mobile Order, But Offers
Greater Potential Longer Term
We
are constructive on the use of guest facing technology for the
restaurant industry. MCD’s longer-term U.S. story revolves around
Experience of the Future (EOTF), a holistic operational and
technological overhaul to the store base. MCD’s March 2017 investor
meeting centered around the initiative with interactive
displays. Perhaps
the most conspicuous piece of Experience of the Future lies in
digital kiosk ordering, which have seen success in International Lead
Markets.
Additionally, food ordered via the kiosk is delivered to the
customer’s table. We
believe EOTF better enhances the instore experience, which represents
roughly 30% of domestic sales compared to mobile ordering, which
allows customers to avoid leaving their cars.
Our
ROI** math suggests EOTF leads to a 9% cash/cash return in Year 1 in
the 55% of domestic stores that do not require a store remodel, and
5% in the 45% of stores that require a remodel, which is a
predecessor to implementing EOTF. Our
math is premised on total
costs of $150,000 for the Experience of the Future enhancement, and
$700,000 of all-in costs when including EOTF as well as a store
remodel.
MCD has offered to pay 55% of the cost for Experience of the Future,
in excess of the 40% the company contributed to the store remodel
initiative beginning in 2010, for restaurants that commit to the
program by the end of 2017.
McDonald’s
targets a high-teens return on incrementally invested capital (ROIIC,
or McSpeak for evaluating ROI), improving to the mid-20% range
beginning in 2019. We believe EOTF’s ROI is captured over time as
the sales lift does not dissolve as in the case of a traditional
restaurant remodel. Rather, the lift should sustain as we expect
consumers to increasingly embrace technological change. This is
evidenced across concepts, such as Panera’s experience with 2.0, as
well as McDonald’s own experience in Canada, where kiosks saw
12-13% sales mix in Year 1 and 27% in Year 2. We
also note kiosk ordering will also likely lead to labor savings over
time which should help boost ROIIC, but is unlikely for the
foreseeable future.
In
2017, MCD expects to end the year with EOTF offered in 2,500 domestic
locations from 500 at 2016-end. MCD targets the majority of domestic
locations to feature EOTF by 2020, but has not given intermediary
targets. The
amount of stores adding EOTF depends on franchise reception to the
initiative but we see positive indicators given our checks as well as
the company’s disclosure that 90% of franchisees approved of the
initiative after taking the same interactive tour that was given at
the March 2017 investor day.
We
estimate 3,000 locations to add EOTF in 2018, which should lead to a
70 bps contribution to U.S. same store sales assuming an even cadence
of restaurants adding the initiative over the course of the
year. Further
we assume the mix of stores adding EOTF in 2018 reflects the mix of
overall stores needed to add EOTF, or 55% of stores that already have
a remodel while 45% require a store remodel. McDonald’s
has previously announced plans to remodel 650 restaurants in 2017,
which we expect will also add EOTF.
Summarizing
all of the above: the workers you see in the photo below are now an
endangered species.
By Tyler
Durden /
Republished with permission / ZeroHedge.com / Report
a typo
* Sommige van die ‘deskundigen’ durven zelfs te zeggen, dat robotisering meer werk zal opleveren…. ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! ha!
** ROI: Return On Investment.
