🚨Nieuw IPCC-rapport: ‘De mens moet z’n uitstoot van broeikasgassen onmiddellijk en vergaand beperken, wil hij de opwarming van de aarde nog kunnen beperken tot 1,5 graad Celsius. Maar tot nog toe neemt die uitstoot alleen maar verder toe. Het huidige beleid om de uitstoot terug te dringen is volstrekt onvoldoende. Op basis daarvan zal de opwarming aan het eind van de eeuw ruim 3°C bedragen,’ schrijft collega Marcel aan de Brugh.
Mijn zoontjes van 0 en 2 jaar oud gaan, als het zo doorgaat als nu, dus een wereld meemaken die 3 graden warmer is.
Zo’n temperatuursstijging is voor grote groepen mensen en en cruciale ecosystemen ronduit catastrofaal, volgens dit artikel uit The Economist. Het stuk over zeespiegelstijging is bijzonder relevant voor Nederland: Komt de opwarming boven de 2°C uit, dan zal de zeespiegel wereldwijd de komende eeuwen waarschijnlijk met vele meters stijgen.
‘What sea level would look like at 3°C depends on how quickly things heat up. Because ice takes time to melt and warmth gets into the ocean depths only slowly, sea level takes its time responding to the surface temperature. This means the seas will be lower at the point when 3°C is reached if it is reached quickly than if temperatures rise more slowly.
What matters more than the sea level at the time when the world hits 3°C is the sea level to which a 3°C world would be committed in the long run. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which until a decade ago was considered pretty stable, is crumbling at the edges. There is growing evidence that at around 2°C of warming it will begin to break down completely. “If that point is passed, the evidence suggests that the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica will increase dramatically,” says Nerilie Abram of the Australian National University.
The full effects of such a collapse—perhaps 1.6 metres’ worth of sea-level rise—would not be seen for another century or more. But the rate of change would increase much sooner than that. “On our current climate trajectory,” says Dr Abram, “we can expect a very rapid jump in how quickly Antarctica loses ice in just a few decades time.” In a 3°C world similar concerns apply to Greenland, too.
Cities, and indeed low-lying countries, which might hold their own against the 30-90 centimetre sea-level rise expected by 2100 in a 2°C world, might well have to throw in the towel faced by four or five times as much. As with wet-bulb temperatures, there are limits to the extent to which adaptation can offer hope once the world gets to 3°C. And even when lives can be saved, places cannot. Coastal cities that hundreds of millions now call home would be changed utterly if they persist at all. Nor could the indigenous cultures of the Arctic or the rainforest survive in anything like their current form. Much of the Earth-as-was would be forgotten, as well as lost.’
https://lnkd.in/edr3XQaR
Mijn zoontjes van 0 en 2 jaar oud gaan, als het zo doorgaat als nu, dus een wereld meemaken die 3 graden warmer is.
Zo’n temperatuursstijging is voor grote groepen mensen en en cruciale ecosystemen ronduit catastrofaal, volgens dit artikel uit The Economist. Het stuk over zeespiegelstijging is bijzonder relevant voor Nederland: Komt de opwarming boven de 2°C uit, dan zal de zeespiegel wereldwijd de komende eeuwen waarschijnlijk met vele meters stijgen.
‘What sea level would look like at 3°C depends on how quickly things heat up. Because ice takes time to melt and warmth gets into the ocean depths only slowly, sea level takes its time responding to the surface temperature. This means the seas will be lower at the point when 3°C is reached if it is reached quickly than if temperatures rise more slowly.
What matters more than the sea level at the time when the world hits 3°C is the sea level to which a 3°C world would be committed in the long run. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which until a decade ago was considered pretty stable, is crumbling at the edges. There is growing evidence that at around 2°C of warming it will begin to break down completely. “If that point is passed, the evidence suggests that the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica will increase dramatically,” says Nerilie Abram of the Australian National University.
The full effects of such a collapse—perhaps 1.6 metres’ worth of sea-level rise—would not be seen for another century or more. But the rate of change would increase much sooner than that. “On our current climate trajectory,” says Dr Abram, “we can expect a very rapid jump in how quickly Antarctica loses ice in just a few decades time.” In a 3°C world similar concerns apply to Greenland, too.
Cities, and indeed low-lying countries, which might hold their own against the 30-90 centimetre sea-level rise expected by 2100 in a 2°C world, might well have to throw in the towel faced by four or five times as much. As with wet-bulb temperatures, there are limits to the extent to which adaptation can offer hope once the world gets to 3°C. And even when lives can be saved, places cannot. Coastal cities that hundreds of millions now call home would be changed utterly if they persist at all. Nor could the indigenous cultures of the Arctic or the rainforest survive in anything like their current form. Much of the Earth-as-was would be forgotten, as well as lost.’
https://lnkd.in/drnppcF