Tien
jaar geleden hebben vooraanstaande wetenschappers zich gebogen over de
vraag wat er zal gebeuren als de aarde in 2055 met 4 graden Celsius
zal zijn opgewarmd. Zoals de schrijver van het hieronder opgenomen
artikel, Robert Huntziker terecht opmerkt: deze wetenschappers deden
dit niet voor de gein, ze waren (en zijn) oprecht bezorgd dat het die kant wel
degelijk opgaat met de aarde…..
Intussen
zijn er meerdere cumulatieve effecten aan de gang, die de aarde
steeds sneller doen opwarmen, zoals het ontdooien van de permafrost
in het Arctisch gebied, daarbij komt niet alleen CO2 vrij maar ook enorme hoeveelheden methaangas, een uiterst sterk broeikasgas (sterker dan CO2). Daardoor warmt de aarde
nog verder op en ontdooit er nog meer permafrost enz. enz.
Hetzelfde
geldt voor het verdwijnen van ijs in het Arctisch gebied, hoe meer
ijs er verdwijnt, hoe sneller het zeewater opwarmt , zodat er nog meer ijs verdwijnt (immers ijs en sneeuw weerkaatsen zonlicht)……..
Door de
opwarming van de aarde en heftiger wordende natuurrampen, verdwijnt
er steeds meer bos, zelfs in het arctisch gebied waar
temperaturen worden gemeten die de mens nooit heeft meegemaakt en
waardoor ook daar bosbranden ontstaan……. Een rookpluim zo groot
als een fiks deel van Europa was te zien boven Siberië, nu kampen we dit jaar alleen al met meer dan 73.000 branden in het Amazonegebied, waardoor ook daar
de boel steeds verder zal verdrogen en de aarde nog meer opwarmt daar
het groene bladerdak is verdwenen…. Ook hierbij kan je spreken van
een cumulatief effect…..
Vergeet
niet dat een halve graad opwarming van de aarde al een sterfte onder
150 miljoen mensen zal veroorzaken…….*
Lees het
volgende artikel en de geschetste rampen (zoals een enorme zeespiegelstijging die half Nederland zal opslokken) die de mens staan te wachten. Geeft het door, we moeten in actie komen, daar langer wachten op de
politiek geen optie is, de politiek waar men vooral rekening wenst te houden met de oliemaffia, grote bedrijven, intensieve veehouderij** en andere manieren van geldelijk gewin behalen ten kost van onze kleine planeet!!
Het volgende artikel over deze zaak verscheen eerder op CounterPunch:
AUGUST
23, 2019
by ROBERT
HUNZIKER
Photograph
Source: BrendelSignature – CC
BY 3.0
A
decade ago several prominent climate scientists discussed the
prospects of a 4C Earth. Their concern was qualified “… if
greenhouse gases do not slow down, then expect a 4C Earth by 2055.”
Of course, that would be catastrophic, and one can only assume those
scientists must have recognized real risks. Otherwise, why address
the issue of 4C by 2055 in the first instance?
Not
only that but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AR4
(2007) addressed the 4C issue and a 2009 International Climate
Conference at Oxford, “4 Degrees and Beyond” discussed the
consequences at length, e.g., deserts in southern Europe, sea levels
up 2 metres by 2100, unleashing a “carbon time bomb” in the
Arctic, half of the world uninhabitable, etc.
Well,
well, well…now that greenhouse gas emissions have sped up by 60%
since 2010, not slowed down for a minute, the IPCC is talking about
holding global average temps to 2.0C, preferably 1.5C, and they say
the world has 12 years to tackle global warming (actually, nowadays
it’s “global heating” because of massive heat intensity in
certain regions of the planet) or all bets are off.
Because
prominent scientists addressed the issue of a 4C planet and because
climate scientists, in general, are constantly apologizing for being
too conservative, too timid in their forecasts as actual climate
change buries their predictions with a dagger to the heart, it is a
worthwhile exercise to look at a 4C world. It could happen within
current lifetimes just like the scientists speculated 10 years ago.
But, of course, nobody knows for sure. After all, it helps to brace
oneself ahead of time, just in case.
In
all, based upon how conservatively low scientists’ predictions have
been for so long, maybe 4C is realistic by 2055. But, beware if it
happens, infernal regions of the planet will consume vast swaths of
ecosystems and life forms like a monster arising from the darkest of
caves.
Fortunately,
this article is a fictional tale of what 4C would look like based
upon predictions by prominent scientists 10 years ago. And, even
though it may be considered heresy to suggest 4C within current
lifetimes, who knows, maybe those same scientists no longer believe
4C could happen by 2055, but with GHGs zooming up, it would appear
kinda inconsistent not to believe it any longer.
In
2010 the prestigious Met Office Hadley Centre/UK said average
temperatures would likely be 4C above pre-industrial by 2055, “if
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) did not slow down.” Well, guess
what’s happened to GHGs? Asking the question is the answer.
And,
worse yet, it would bring in its wake a 16C rise in Arctic
temperatures where at least twice the amount of carbon already in the
atmosphere is frozen in time, waiting to be released via permafrost
thawing. And, +16C would do it fast.
Accordingly,
recent scientific field studies found thawing permafrost 70 years
ahead of schedule in the High Arctic. Yes, 70 years ahead of
schedule! (Source: Louise M. Farquharson et al, Climate Change Drives
Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost
in the Canadian High Arctic, Geophysical Research Letters, June 10,
2019)
That’s
absolutely horrible news and but one more example of mind-blowing
shock and awe with rapidity of climate change vis a vis scientists’
expectations.
What
happens if 4C hits by 2055?
The
short answer has gotta be: Pandemonium reigns supreme!
According
to the scientific forum 4 Degrees Hotter: “Less than a billion
people will survive.” Expect, on average, more than a million human
global warming deaths every week. As such, mass graveyards stacked
with bodies would become a new normal.
Prominent
climate scientists were quoted in the 4 Degrees Hotter article:
According
to Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, one of Europe’s most
eminent climate scientists, director of the Potsdam Institute: “At
4C Earth’s … carrying capacity estimates are below 1 billion
people.”
Echoing
that opinion, professor Kevin Anderson of the prestigious Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change stated: “Only about 10% of the planet’s
population would survive at 4C.”
A
global average of 4C means land temperatures would be 5.5C-6C hotter,
especially inland from coasts. The tropics would be too hot for
people to live and most of the temperate regions would be
desertified.
As
a result, half of the planet would be uninhabitable. Populations
would be driven towards the poles. Over 136 port cities each with
populations of one-half to one million would require sea walls or
translocation of nearly one-half billion people.
In
Europe, new deserts would spread to Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey
as the Sahara figuratively leaps across the Straits of Gibraltar. In
Switzerland, summer would be as hot as Baghdad today. Europe’s
population would be forced into a “Great Trek North” in order to
survive.
Even
as recently as this century, the European heat wave of 2003 killed
35,000, but it was only a sampler of what too much heat does to the
human body. (Source: The 2003 European Heatwave Caused 35,000 Deaths,
New Scientist, October 10, 2003)
At
the time, and according to the New Scientist, in 2003: “The EPI
says it is confident that the August heat wave has broken all records
for heat-related deaths and says the world must cut the carbon
dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming.”
But,
today, that’s a bad joke with CO2 in 2003 at 378 ppm. Today it’s
410. Therefore, “must cut the carbon dioxide emissions that
contribute to global warming” has been a total bust!
Temperature
bands, called iostherms, will shift towards the poles faster than
ecosystems can keep up. Thus, most ecosystems will collapse with
breakdown of organic material, leading to ever-greater emissions of
carbon self-perpetuating hands-free on autopilot, defined as runaway
global warming.
Paleoclimate
research suggests that the last time temperatures were 4C above
pre-industrial; eventually, there were no large ice-sheets on the
planet. Sea levels were 65-70 metres (213-229 feet) higher than
today. Yet, ice sheets take considerable time to lose mass, even when
it’s really hot. Thus, the sea level rise to 2100 would likely be
only a few metres. But, still, get serious; it only takes a couple of
metres for unmitigated disaster.
In
a 4C world, temperatures would vary considerably on a worldwide
basis. The Amazon, the Sahara-Sahei-Arabia region, India, and
northern Australia would have higher temperatures than the average at
any other place on Earth.
Already,
Australia gave a recent “Preview of Hot Earth” late in the year
2018 in real time when record-breaking temperatures hit hard. More
than 20,000 bats dropped dead in over two days as temps in northern
Australia hit 42°C (107°F). Hundreds of thousands of bony herring,
golden and silver perch and Murray cod died in Darling River because
of extreme climate. Fruit on trees cooked from the inside out.
(Source: Thousands of Australian Animals Die in Unprecedented
Heatwave, The Scientist, Jan. 17, 2019)
That
happened in today’s world while average global temperatures have
only reached approximately 1C above post-industrial. What if 4C
becomes reality or anything above 1C, like 2C or 3C? Then, what of
northern Australia and other overly sensitive heat regions of the
planet?
Meanwhile
global average temperatures for July 2019 were the hottest ever since
1880. And, CO2 in the atmosphere is at its highest reading in 400,000
years, a period of time when atmospheric CO2 ran 180 ppm (low) to 280
ppm (high).
As
of today, CO2 at 410 ppm has powered thru the 280-ppm ceiling of the
past 400,000 years like a hot knife thru butter, and even more
remarkable yet, it only took a couple hundred years to break a
400,000-year record. Hands down, that’s an all-time geologic speed
record.
Thus,
the human experience has turned into a vast experiment filled with
unknowns because there are no comparisons throughout human history.
Earthlings have shattered all records of the past 400,000 years. What
happens next is a gamble.
All
in all, it’s somewhat puzzling that scientists are not beating the
drums about the threat of a 4C world hitting earlier than expected.
Maybe they are… but privately.
(EPI: Environmental Performance Index)
Join
the debate on Facebook
More
articles by:ROBERT
HUNZIKER
Robert
Hunziker lives
in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.
====================================
* Zie: ‘Halve graad opwarming van de aarde zal 150 miljoen mensen het leven kosten……‘
** Door de intensieve veehouderij (walgelijke dierenmishandeling op schunnige grootte) draagt Nederland onevenredig bij aan de opwarming van de aarde….. Elk jaar worden hier 500 miljoen dieren (ja, een half miljard!) groot en doodgemarteld, deze dieren stoten een enorme hoeveelheid methaangas uit, zoals eerder beschreven: een uiterst sterk broeikasgas……
Zie ook:
‘Boris Johnson (Britse premier) liegt keihard dat de branden in Amazonegebied hem aan het hart gaan‘
‘Bolsonaro 8 maanden president: nu al 84% meer bosbranden in het Amazonewoud……‘
‘Het beschermen van de planeet is verworden tot een misdaad, veelal bestraft met moord‘
‘Niet eerder getoonde satellietfoto’s laten zien dat grote delen van Arctisch gebied in brand staan >> klimaatkantelpunt gepasseerd‘
‘Grote Arctische gebieden in Siberië, Groenland, Canada en Alaska branden: klimaatkantelpunt nadert met rasse schreden‘
‘‘Methaangasboer’ ontsnappend uit de Oost-Arctische Plaat kan de wereld zoals wij die kennen vernietigen‘
‘Aantal CO2 deeltjes in de atmosfeer op voor de mens nooit eerder vertoond hoog niveau‘
‘Cruiseschip Zuiderdam urenlang tegengehouden van afvaren door milieuactivisten‘
‘Australië geeft toestemming tot uitbaten enorm grote kolenmijn‘ (zie ook de links in dat bericht over het Grote Barrièrerif)
‘Klimaatverandering: inwoners Bratsk (Siberië) stikken in de rook van bosbranden…….‘
‘Apocalyptisch smeltproces in (ant)arctisch gebied, na alweer een jaar dat tot de 3 warmste zal worden gerekend…….‘
Hier nog wat links naar berichten over effecten van luchtvervuiling:
‘Longartsen tegen gebruik van dieselbrandstof‘
‘130 km/u. brengt geen verkorting van de reistijd, maar wel extra vervuiling…..‘
‘Luchtvervuiling veroorzaakt naast long- en luchtwegklachten, ook psychische aandoeningen bij kinderen‘
‘Hartklachten ook door lage niveau’s van luchtvervuiling…..’
‘Nederlandse lucht nog vuiler dan eerder gedacht…..‘
‘Nederlander leeft 13 maanden korter door luchtvervuiling, dat zijn meer dan 260.000 mensenlevens‘ (lullig genoeg overlijden er werkelijk mensen vele jaren eerder doordat zij bijvoorbeeld longkanker hebben opgelopen door auto-uitstoot en dan gaat het om mensen die nooit gerookt hebben, ofwel ook onder de rokers kunnen er longkankers zijn ontstaan door de uitlaatgassen van auto’s…. Luchtvervuiling waar je longarts de Kanter nooit over hoort……)
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